From Pledges to Plots: Linking the Paris Agreement to Adaptation Outcomes in Pakistan’s Agriculture and Water Equity

Abstract

This study investigates whether the Paris Agreement–aligned adaptation investments in Pakistan’s agriculture deliver resilience and equity at the farm level. Pakistan’s agro-economy sits where a warming climate, melting glaciers and an ageing colonial irrigation system collide. The Indus Basin, its principal food basket, faces escalating hydro-meteorological extremes and a chronic decline in per-capita water availability, threatening livelihoods and economic stability. In response, Pakistan updated its NDC in 2021 and published a National Adaptation Plan in 2023, both pledging climate-resilient agriculture and equitable water management, yet rigorous evidence on plot-scale outcomes remains scarce. We assemble a district-reach panel linking adaptation spending, canal telemetry, remote-sensing proxies of crop performance and household surveys. Difference-in-differences and event-study models show that adaptation reduces yield volatility by about six percentage points and improves water equity by seven, with effects emerging after one to two years. Results imply adaptation works mainly as a variance and equity enhancing technology, underscoring the need for transparency, open data and fairness-based evaluation metrics.