Recalibrating Stability: Israel–India Defense Ties, U.S. Enablers, and Pakistan’s Crisis vs Deterrence Balance (1992–2022)

Abstract

Regional security in South Asia is significantly shaped by changing great- and middle-power alignments. This article looks at the changing India-Israel defense relationship and offers insights into how it threatens Pakistan’s strategic stability. The study aims to determine the impact of Israel–India defense partnership, facilitated by U.S. policy, on the Pakistani strategic military balance, the escalatory threat, and the space of diplomatic maneuver. Since full normalization in 1992, Israel has become a major supplier of advanced military, surveillance, and cyber capabilities to India, with ties deepening under Prime Minister Narendra Modi into counterterrorism, space, and hybrid-warfare domains. The United States serves as an enabling permissive facilitator to this triangle, helping transfer technology and making it acceptable that India has expanded its role, which complicates stability in the crisis and deterrence equation of Pakistan. The study deploys a qualitative approach to attempt to synthesize historical discussions, policy statements, trends in the defense-trade, and secondary literatures in order to follow the curve of cooperation and its security externalities. The results indicate the expansion of the qualitative divide in the favour of India, increased exposure to cyber-espionage and information activities, and an escalation of narratives that can end up isolating Pakistan. Pakistan’s internal debate on whether to recognize Israel or not is also mapped in the paper by considering potential benefits in terms of defense, agriculture and U.S. relationship against ideological and societal impediments. The study concludes that Indo-Israel cooperation, embedded in the U.S. strategy, turns out to be a persistent disrupter of the vulnerable balance of power in South Asia. It is recommended that Islamabad must strengthen its indigenous defense production, diplomatic sphere, as well research capacity to counter the growing Indo-Israel ties.